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From the great migration to the bear market, crypto miners went through many challenges throughout the year including a shift in profitability. However, according to Steve Bassi, an expert in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) mining, crypto mining may still be profitable if we look at its long-term prospects.
As the costs of application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) miners hover around $8,000 to $12,000 and electricity costs take up more than half of the projected income, the current estimated time frame when a miner could cover the cost of one device is five to six years. Commenting on the topic, Bassi said that while mining income certainly looks bleak in the short run, it will change as time goes by. He said:
“In the long run, we're expecting another BTC halving in 2024. So, a long-term holder could do well mining in the short term and perhaps selling when block reward goes down in 2024.”
If prices don't change in the coming years, things can go sour for miners as the devices are not designed to last that long. Bassi noted that mining hardware depreciates in three to five years, with some parts needing complete replacement. “Out to 60 months on these devices, operators have a good chance that they're going to have to replace a power supply or fan in a significant portion of these devices,” said Bassi.
Despite this, the mining expert praised the water cooling aspects of the newer Antminer devices. According to Bassi, if this standard stays, cooling will be more efficient and only miners who are already planning for liquid cooling will be competitive.
Related: Bitcoin miners sell their hodlings, and ASIC prices keep dropping — What’s next for the industry?
Earlier this month, JPMorgan strategists mentioned that the costs of producing BTC have dropped from $24,000 to $13,000 at the start of June. This number is the lowest since September of last year. While the lower production costs may ease selling pressure from miners, some still perceive it to have a negative effect on asset prices.